$ ./pattern --anatomy parabolic▌

PARABOLIC ADVANCE

A parabolic advance is a trend whose rate of growth keeps rising. Each base is shorter than the last, each leg out of a base is steeper, and the pivot lows trace a convex support arc. When price closes beneath that arc the structure is spent, and the unwind usually runs back to where the curve began.

Phase reference

#	Phase	Price structure	Volume	Sentiment
1	Stage-1 base	Flat range, months long. Defines the origin of the curve.	Low and even	Stealth
2	Breakout · leg 1	Range high cleared; the shallowest leg (θ1).	Expands on the break	Stealth
3	Base 1 · A1	Longest base (T1). Its low is the first arc anchor.	Dries up	Stealth → awareness
4	Base 2 · A2	Shorter, higher, steeper exit (T2 < T1, θ2 > θ1).	Dries up, then expands	Awareness
5	Base 3 · “X”	Third anchor confirms curvature. The breakout from its end starts the steep part of the curve.	Expands sharply	Mania begins
6	Base 4 · A4	Shortest base, deepest % shake-out. Price holds the arc.	Heavy both sides	Mania
7	Climax run	Steepest leg (θc) and the fastest daily rate, with gaps.	Rising into a record	Euphoria
8	Sell point	Reversal day off the high.	Record volume on the reversal	“New paradigm”
9	Breakdown	First daily close beneath the arc.	High, on red bars	Denial
10	Bull trap	Rally fails under the arc's projection and leaves a lower high.	Light	Return to normal?
11	Unwind	Retrace to Base 2, then Base 1: −86% here.	Elevated, then fades	Fear → capitulation

Measured geometry

Leg	Days	Length	Gain	Angle θ	Per day
Leg 1	34–64	30d	+95%	40°	2.3%
Leg 2	96–120	24d	+99%	47°	2.9%
Leg 3	146–160	14d	+80%	58°	4.3%
Leg 4	176–188	12d	+91%	64°	5.5%
Climax	200–208	8d	+72%	69°	7%

Base	Days	Length T	Depth	Arc anchor	S(t)
Base 1	64–96	32d	−21%	A1 · day 76	16.3
Base 2	120–146	26d	−22%	A2 · day 136	31.8
Base 3	160–176	16d	−21%	A3 · day 172	52.6
Base 4	188–200	12d	−28%	A4 · day 197	77.1

The test for a true parabola is the ordering: angle and compounded daily rate rise from leg to leg while base length falls. A straight line on a log chart is a constant growth rate, drawn as the dashed blue reference. A parabolic advance pulls away above it. Leg angles are screen angles on this chart, so read them as an ordering, not a threshold.

Is it really parabolic? Five checks

01Three anchors, not two. Two base lows only define a line. Draw the arc once a third base low (A3) sits on it without breaking it.
02Convex on a log scale. On a linear chart any steady exponential trend looks curved. Switch to log: if the trend turns straight, it is a channel, not a parabola.
03Bases compress. T1 > T2 > T3 > T4. Three or four bases is typical. A base that runs longer than the one before is the trend slowing.
04Legs steepen. Angle and compounded daily rate rise every leg. The leg out of the last base is the steepest of the move.
05Volume confirms. Volume expands on legs, dries up in bases, and sets its record during the climax or on the reversal day.

Breakdown protocol

01Plan the exit before the break. The sell point is the climax: record volume, peak extension, gaps, a reversal day off the high. Selling into strength happens there.
02Trigger. The first daily close below the arc. An intraday pierce that closes back above it does not count.
03Confirmation. A rally that stalls under the arc's projection and leaves a lower high, or a close below the Base 4 low.
04Targets. The Base 2 floor first, then the Base 1 range at the origin of the curve. Peter Brandt has noted that Bitcoin's broken parabolas corrected roughly 75–80% or more.
05Invalidation. Price reclaims the arc on a closing basis and makes a new high. Redraw a shallower arc through the new lows.

Sources

Most of the Brandt figures come from secondary news summaries of his posts. Educational reference only, not trading advice.